Paper track record

Equity curve — $50,000 start · $150 risk/trade · faded = backfill, green = forward

Eval & income outlook expectancy-based; ignores variance — see pass-rate sims

AI evaluation — last 60 resolved Bt trades · 2026-07-17

AI-proposed hypotheses tested via z-test · BH-FDR · OOS — validated = passed stats, not auto-deployed

• inconclusive Short-side trades produce higher net R than long-side tradesINCONCLUSIVE: match +0.200R vs rest +0.205R (Δ-0.005R), p=0.990, FDR=ns, OOS consistent, n=1446
• validated Trades with an opening range above 25 points produce higher net R than those at or below 25 pointsPASSED: match +0.317R vs rest +0.195R (Δ+0.121R), p=0.001, FDR=sig, OOS consistent, n=208
• rejected Entries at the 10 ET hour produce higher net R than entries at any other hourREJECTED (opposite of claim): match +0.195R vs rest +0.239R (Δ-0.044R), p=0.031, FDR=sig, OOS consistent, n=2844
• validated Strongest-trend trades produce higher net RPASSED: match +0.270R vs rest +0.158R (Δ+0.113R), p=0.000, FDR=sig, OOS consistent, n=1369
• validated Widest opening ranges produce higher net RPASSED: match +0.266R vs rest +0.160R (Δ+0.106R), p=0.000, FDR=sig, OOS consistent, n=1384